Thanks to BrewDog having a live updating site with the status of the funding available, and efforts from the community to record the progress, we can explore how things have been going.
This is a quick overview, with the intent of adding more detailed analysis over time.
Disclaimer: I have some shares in BrewDog, but haven’t invested in this round.
First, a quick look at the total amount of money raised up to 21/01/18. Data from the 16th to the 20th is estimated as there was a gap in the data.
Now let’s look at the difference from one day to the next:
The daily change understandably is fairly noisy, and it’s hard to get a sense of what is “typical” particularly given the surges at the beginning and end.
A better way of viewing the changes is to look at the distribution of daily changes.
We can see that the median daily change is £83148. If that was typical from 21/01/18 to 19/10/18, a further £22533243.5 would be raised, taking the total to £34362120.5.
However, using the mean funding rate over the higher resolution data (from 20-01-2018 17:12:46 to 26-01-2018 09:15:01), the daily rate is £23313.28 which would take the total up by £6192346.24. This is a significantly lower amount, though still substantial. The large difference is likely due to there being a significant rush to invest followed by an extension. It is also important to take note of the very short timeframe this is averaged over.
Future analysis will look at whether this trends upwards over time.
Change within a day
As of (18-01-20 17:12:46), I have been recording the figures in five minute intervals. This is currently only a short time, but we can see the rate drop significantly overnight (as would be expected if most investors are on a similar timezone).
Instead of the total funding amount, we can look for the total number of investors in the round.